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How to calculate probabilities of a football team scoring a certain number of goals
The Next CEO of Stack OverflowProbability of a player scoring multiple goals in a matchAre the rules of this tournament fair?Accounting for uncertainty in an Elo rating system for FoosballMaximize conditional probability.Sports betting: How to calculate expected goals by main marketsProbability of Sum Being Greater than $12$ of $3$ non-random discrete variables.Calculating odds of Player A and Player B in the same football matchProbability of football player scoring 2 goals, 3+ goals or anytime given his prob to score if goal is being scoredDistribution of successes for k trials among m different groupsProbability high school math competition problem
$begingroup$
If a team has 50-50% chances of scoring over or under 1.5 points, how do you calculate what are their chances of scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points? And how do you calculate the chances of scoring over/under 2.5 points? (The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals)
Later edit: The chances for team to score 1.5 points comes from a match were the expected total number of goals is 2.5 (50%-50% chances of both teams to score over or under 2.5) and team A is better than team B with 0.5 points. If this helps.
probability probability-distributions
New contributor
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If a team has 50-50% chances of scoring over or under 1.5 points, how do you calculate what are their chances of scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points? And how do you calculate the chances of scoring over/under 2.5 points? (The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals)
Later edit: The chances for team to score 1.5 points comes from a match were the expected total number of goals is 2.5 (50%-50% chances of both teams to score over or under 2.5) and team A is better than team B with 0.5 points. If this helps.
probability probability-distributions
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Mar 28 at 9:23
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If a team has 50-50% chances of scoring over or under 1.5 points, how do you calculate what are their chances of scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points? And how do you calculate the chances of scoring over/under 2.5 points? (The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals)
Later edit: The chances for team to score 1.5 points comes from a match were the expected total number of goals is 2.5 (50%-50% chances of both teams to score over or under 2.5) and team A is better than team B with 0.5 points. If this helps.
probability probability-distributions
New contributor
$endgroup$
If a team has 50-50% chances of scoring over or under 1.5 points, how do you calculate what are their chances of scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points? And how do you calculate the chances of scoring over/under 2.5 points? (The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals)
Later edit: The chances for team to score 1.5 points comes from a match were the expected total number of goals is 2.5 (50%-50% chances of both teams to score over or under 2.5) and team A is better than team B with 0.5 points. If this helps.
probability probability-distributions
probability probability-distributions
New contributor
New contributor
edited Mar 28 at 9:33
Carlos Percentage
New contributor
asked Mar 28 at 9:16
Carlos PercentageCarlos Percentage
11
11
New contributor
New contributor
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Mar 28 at 9:23
add a comment |
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Mar 28 at 9:23
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Mar 28 at 9:23
$begingroup$
There isn't enough information.
$endgroup$
– lulu
Mar 28 at 9:23
add a comment |
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
If all you know is that the chances of scoring under or over $1.5$ points, then there is no way to know what the chance of scoring exactly $0$ points is.
For example, the two cases:
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.5$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0.5$
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0$, chance of scoring $10$ is $0.5$
both result in the team having a 50-50 chance of scoring over or under $1.5$ points.
Basically, you want to calculate $p_0, p_1,p_2,p_3dots$ while all you know is that
$p_0+p_1=frac12$
$p_2+p_3+cdots = frac12$.
$p_igeq 0$ for all $i$.
There are infinitelly many solutions to the above set of equations.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Actually, you can't. You need extra information to know that.
If I call A : "the team score > 1.5" and B : "the team score <1.5", you will have this tree of probability :
/
B A
/ /
0 1 2 3
So you know that the branches of the first level are 50% each, but as far as you do not know anything on the second level, you can't answer the problem.
With this extra information, you will have :
P(team scores 0) = P(B) * P(0|B)
P(team scores 1) = P(B) * P(1|B)
P(team scores 2) = P(B) * P(2|B)
P(team scores 3) = P(A) * P(3|A)
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
add a comment |
$begingroup$
As others have pointed out, we don't have enough information to solve this problem without additional assumptions.
So let's assume the number of goals scored follows a Poisson distribution with mean $lambda$. To determine $lambda$, we are given that $P(X le 1) = 0.5$, where $X$ is the number of goals. This translates to the equation
$$P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e^-lambda + lambda e^-lambda = 0.5$$
We can find an approximate solution numerically, with result $lambda = 1.67835$.
Then to find the probability of other numbers of goals, use the Poisson density function,
$$P(X=x) = fraclambda^x e^-lambdax!$$
for $x=0,1,2,3, dots$.
Here are a few values.
$$beginmatrix
x &P(X=x) \
0 &0.19\
1 &0.31\
2 &0.26\
3 &0.15\
4 &0.06\
5 &0.02\
endmatrix$$
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
add a comment |
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3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
If all you know is that the chances of scoring under or over $1.5$ points, then there is no way to know what the chance of scoring exactly $0$ points is.
For example, the two cases:
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.5$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0.5$
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0$, chance of scoring $10$ is $0.5$
both result in the team having a 50-50 chance of scoring over or under $1.5$ points.
Basically, you want to calculate $p_0, p_1,p_2,p_3dots$ while all you know is that
$p_0+p_1=frac12$
$p_2+p_3+cdots = frac12$.
$p_igeq 0$ for all $i$.
There are infinitelly many solutions to the above set of equations.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If all you know is that the chances of scoring under or over $1.5$ points, then there is no way to know what the chance of scoring exactly $0$ points is.
For example, the two cases:
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.5$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0.5$
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0$, chance of scoring $10$ is $0.5$
both result in the team having a 50-50 chance of scoring over or under $1.5$ points.
Basically, you want to calculate $p_0, p_1,p_2,p_3dots$ while all you know is that
$p_0+p_1=frac12$
$p_2+p_3+cdots = frac12$.
$p_igeq 0$ for all $i$.
There are infinitelly many solutions to the above set of equations.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
If all you know is that the chances of scoring under or over $1.5$ points, then there is no way to know what the chance of scoring exactly $0$ points is.
For example, the two cases:
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.5$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0.5$
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0$, chance of scoring $10$ is $0.5$
both result in the team having a 50-50 chance of scoring over or under $1.5$ points.
Basically, you want to calculate $p_0, p_1,p_2,p_3dots$ while all you know is that
$p_0+p_1=frac12$
$p_2+p_3+cdots = frac12$.
$p_igeq 0$ for all $i$.
There are infinitelly many solutions to the above set of equations.
$endgroup$
If all you know is that the chances of scoring under or over $1.5$ points, then there is no way to know what the chance of scoring exactly $0$ points is.
For example, the two cases:
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.5$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0.5$
- Chance of scoring $0$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $1$ is $0.25$, chance of scoring $2$ is $0$, chance of scoring $10$ is $0.5$
both result in the team having a 50-50 chance of scoring over or under $1.5$ points.
Basically, you want to calculate $p_0, p_1,p_2,p_3dots$ while all you know is that
$p_0+p_1=frac12$
$p_2+p_3+cdots = frac12$.
$p_igeq 0$ for all $i$.
There are infinitelly many solutions to the above set of equations.
answered Mar 28 at 9:25
5xum5xum
91.8k394161
91.8k394161
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Actually, you can't. You need extra information to know that.
If I call A : "the team score > 1.5" and B : "the team score <1.5", you will have this tree of probability :
/
B A
/ /
0 1 2 3
So you know that the branches of the first level are 50% each, but as far as you do not know anything on the second level, you can't answer the problem.
With this extra information, you will have :
P(team scores 0) = P(B) * P(0|B)
P(team scores 1) = P(B) * P(1|B)
P(team scores 2) = P(B) * P(2|B)
P(team scores 3) = P(A) * P(3|A)
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Actually, you can't. You need extra information to know that.
If I call A : "the team score > 1.5" and B : "the team score <1.5", you will have this tree of probability :
/
B A
/ /
0 1 2 3
So you know that the branches of the first level are 50% each, but as far as you do not know anything on the second level, you can't answer the problem.
With this extra information, you will have :
P(team scores 0) = P(B) * P(0|B)
P(team scores 1) = P(B) * P(1|B)
P(team scores 2) = P(B) * P(2|B)
P(team scores 3) = P(A) * P(3|A)
New contributor
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Actually, you can't. You need extra information to know that.
If I call A : "the team score > 1.5" and B : "the team score <1.5", you will have this tree of probability :
/
B A
/ /
0 1 2 3
So you know that the branches of the first level are 50% each, but as far as you do not know anything on the second level, you can't answer the problem.
With this extra information, you will have :
P(team scores 0) = P(B) * P(0|B)
P(team scores 1) = P(B) * P(1|B)
P(team scores 2) = P(B) * P(2|B)
P(team scores 3) = P(A) * P(3|A)
New contributor
$endgroup$
Actually, you can't. You need extra information to know that.
If I call A : "the team score > 1.5" and B : "the team score <1.5", you will have this tree of probability :
/
B A
/ /
0 1 2 3
So you know that the branches of the first level are 50% each, but as far as you do not know anything on the second level, you can't answer the problem.
With this extra information, you will have :
P(team scores 0) = P(B) * P(0|B)
P(team scores 1) = P(B) * P(1|B)
P(team scores 2) = P(B) * P(2|B)
P(team scores 3) = P(A) * P(3|A)
New contributor
edited Mar 28 at 9:38
New contributor
answered Mar 28 at 9:27
Florian IngelsFlorian Ingels
12
12
New contributor
New contributor
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
The team can score more than $4$ goals.
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:29
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
I'm not sure this is the case is the first part of the question. Whatever, the lack of information holds.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:31
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
The question specifically says: "The team can only score 0,1,2,3,4 and so on, no decimals" (I added the emphasis)
$endgroup$
– 5xum
Mar 28 at 9:34
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
I was referring to the first part of the question : "scoring exactly 0,1,2 or 3 points ?". I realize that I messed things up, I just edit my answer.
$endgroup$
– Florian Ingels
Mar 28 at 9:38
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
$begingroup$
Added some extra info in the original post. Maybe it helps.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 9:41
add a comment |
$begingroup$
As others have pointed out, we don't have enough information to solve this problem without additional assumptions.
So let's assume the number of goals scored follows a Poisson distribution with mean $lambda$. To determine $lambda$, we are given that $P(X le 1) = 0.5$, where $X$ is the number of goals. This translates to the equation
$$P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e^-lambda + lambda e^-lambda = 0.5$$
We can find an approximate solution numerically, with result $lambda = 1.67835$.
Then to find the probability of other numbers of goals, use the Poisson density function,
$$P(X=x) = fraclambda^x e^-lambdax!$$
for $x=0,1,2,3, dots$.
Here are a few values.
$$beginmatrix
x &P(X=x) \
0 &0.19\
1 &0.31\
2 &0.26\
3 &0.15\
4 &0.06\
5 &0.02\
endmatrix$$
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
add a comment |
$begingroup$
As others have pointed out, we don't have enough information to solve this problem without additional assumptions.
So let's assume the number of goals scored follows a Poisson distribution with mean $lambda$. To determine $lambda$, we are given that $P(X le 1) = 0.5$, where $X$ is the number of goals. This translates to the equation
$$P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e^-lambda + lambda e^-lambda = 0.5$$
We can find an approximate solution numerically, with result $lambda = 1.67835$.
Then to find the probability of other numbers of goals, use the Poisson density function,
$$P(X=x) = fraclambda^x e^-lambdax!$$
for $x=0,1,2,3, dots$.
Here are a few values.
$$beginmatrix
x &P(X=x) \
0 &0.19\
1 &0.31\
2 &0.26\
3 &0.15\
4 &0.06\
5 &0.02\
endmatrix$$
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
add a comment |
$begingroup$
As others have pointed out, we don't have enough information to solve this problem without additional assumptions.
So let's assume the number of goals scored follows a Poisson distribution with mean $lambda$. To determine $lambda$, we are given that $P(X le 1) = 0.5$, where $X$ is the number of goals. This translates to the equation
$$P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e^-lambda + lambda e^-lambda = 0.5$$
We can find an approximate solution numerically, with result $lambda = 1.67835$.
Then to find the probability of other numbers of goals, use the Poisson density function,
$$P(X=x) = fraclambda^x e^-lambdax!$$
for $x=0,1,2,3, dots$.
Here are a few values.
$$beginmatrix
x &P(X=x) \
0 &0.19\
1 &0.31\
2 &0.26\
3 &0.15\
4 &0.06\
5 &0.02\
endmatrix$$
$endgroup$
As others have pointed out, we don't have enough information to solve this problem without additional assumptions.
So let's assume the number of goals scored follows a Poisson distribution with mean $lambda$. To determine $lambda$, we are given that $P(X le 1) = 0.5$, where $X$ is the number of goals. This translates to the equation
$$P(X=0)+P(X=1)=e^-lambda + lambda e^-lambda = 0.5$$
We can find an approximate solution numerically, with result $lambda = 1.67835$.
Then to find the probability of other numbers of goals, use the Poisson density function,
$$P(X=x) = fraclambda^x e^-lambdax!$$
for $x=0,1,2,3, dots$.
Here are a few values.
$$beginmatrix
x &P(X=x) \
0 &0.19\
1 &0.31\
2 &0.26\
3 &0.15\
4 &0.06\
5 &0.02\
endmatrix$$
edited Mar 28 at 12:36
answered Mar 28 at 12:32
awkwardawkward
6,74511026
6,74511026
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
$begingroup$
Great! Thank you.
$endgroup$
– Carlos Percentage
Mar 28 at 12:35
add a comment |
Carlos Percentage is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Carlos Percentage is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Carlos Percentage is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
Carlos Percentage is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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– lulu
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