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India just shot down a satellite from the ground. At what altitude range is the resulting debris field?



The Next CEO of Stack OverflowWhy would a box full of 1cm balls released into LEO be so scary to an engineer supporting the ISS? - (Updated)Who is accountable for damage caused by the debris field of a successful ASAT testWhat did India's recently tested ASAT vehicle really look like?What was the lifetime of the debris from the US Anti-satellite exercise for USA-193?What are the causes of breakups of spent 2nd and 3rd stages, resulting in orbital debris?What is the linear dimension/mass/possible energy state of the smallest trackable orbital debris item?How is the Hubble main mirror protected from debris?What systems or technologies are developed to protect ISS from space debris?What is the typical relative impact velocity of orbital debris in low Earth orbit?What is the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) Augmented Geosynchronous Laboratory Experiment satellite?What would be the first noticeable consequences to the general public of widespread satellite destruction?










32












$begingroup$


This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:




मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,



आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।



I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.



Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.




There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:




In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.



One such moment is today.



India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.




Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?



note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.




YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals



From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:



India ASAT










share|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 4




    $begingroup$
    So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
    $endgroup$
    – Magic Octopus Urn
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 16




    $begingroup$
    "Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
    $endgroup$
    – jamesqf
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago















32












$begingroup$


This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:




मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,



आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।



I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.



Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.




There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:




In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.



One such moment is today.



India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.




Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?



note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.




YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals



From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:



India ASAT










share|improve this question











$endgroup$







  • 4




    $begingroup$
    So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
    $endgroup$
    – Magic Octopus Urn
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 16




    $begingroup$
    "Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
    $endgroup$
    – jamesqf
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago













32












32








32


3



$begingroup$


This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:




मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,



आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।



I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.



Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.




There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:




In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.



One such moment is today.



India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.




Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?



note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.




YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals



From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:



India ASAT










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




This tweet from India's prime minister Narendra Modi says:




मेरे प्यारे देशवासियों,



आज सवेरे लगभग 11.45 - 12.00 बजे मैं एक महत्वपूर्ण संदेश लेकर आप के बीच आऊँगा।



I would be addressing the nation at around 11:45 AM - 12.00 noon with an important message.



Do watch the address on television, radio or social media.




There are several subsequent tweets with more specifics, including this one:




In the journey of every nation there are moments that bring utmost pride and have a historic impact on generations to come.



One such moment is today.



India has successfully tested the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile. Congratulations to everyone on the success of #MissionShakti.




Question: At what range of altitudes is the resulting debris field?



note: I'm not asking for just a guess or speculation, please include a source of some type.




YouTube: DRDO's Anti Satellite (A-SAT) Test Visuals



From Times of India's Watch: Launch of anti-satellite missile for Mission Shakti:



India ASAT







debris military weapon india






share|improve this question















share|improve this question













share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited 2 days ago







uhoh

















asked 2 days ago









uhohuhoh

39.9k18149502




39.9k18149502







  • 4




    $begingroup$
    So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
    $endgroup$
    – Magic Octopus Urn
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 16




    $begingroup$
    "Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
    $endgroup$
    – jamesqf
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago












  • 4




    $begingroup$
    So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
    $endgroup$
    – Magic Octopus Urn
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 1




    $begingroup$
    just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







  • 16




    $begingroup$
    "Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
    $endgroup$
    – jamesqf
    2 days ago






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
    $endgroup$
    – uhoh
    2 days ago







4




4




$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
2 days ago




$begingroup$
So if their shrapnel burst takes out other satellites... will they be held accountable?
$endgroup$
– Magic Octopus Urn
2 days ago




1




1




$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago





$begingroup$
economictimes.indiatimes.com: 10 things you need to know about ASAT, India's new space slayer
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago





1




1




$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago





$begingroup$
just asked: Who is accountable for the resultant damage caused by the debris field of an ASAT
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago





16




16




$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
2 days ago




$begingroup$
"Shot down" is the wrong term here, because most if not all of it is still up there. "Blew up", maybe?
$endgroup$
– jamesqf
2 days ago




1




1




$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago




$begingroup$
@jamesqf yes indeed, and you are in good company. Jonathan McDowell wrote a PSA about that! But PSA aside, the colloquial "shot down a satellite" evokes the proper imagery and response (brings readers to good answers).
$endgroup$
– uhoh
2 days ago










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















29












$begingroup$

The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.



enter image description here



The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell






share|improve this answer











$endgroup$




















    15












    $begingroup$

    At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.



    Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$








    • 1




      $begingroup$
      as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
      $endgroup$
      – uhoh
      2 days ago






    • 4




      $begingroup$
      At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
      $endgroup$
      – Tristan
      2 days ago






    • 3




      $begingroup$
      Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
      $endgroup$
      – Harish
      2 days ago






    • 2




      $begingroup$
      Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
      $endgroup$
      – Tristan
      yesterday










    • $begingroup$
      As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
      $endgroup$
      – Tristan
      12 hours ago


















    1












    $begingroup$

    I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.



    Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:



    • launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)

    • MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A

    • over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT

    I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.



    At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.



    MICROSAT-R 
    1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
    2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918


    enter image description here



    enter image description here Source



    # https://celestrak.com/satcat/
    TLE = """MICROSAT-R
    1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
    2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
    name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()

    # https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
    # https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
    # https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
    # launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
    # over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
    # Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
    # 20.757N, 87.084E

    import numpy as np
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite

    load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
    ts = load.timescale()
    de421 = load('de421.bsp')
    earth = de421['earth']

    Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
    longitude_degrees = +87.084,
    elevation_m = 10.0)
    minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
    times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)

    MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)

    astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
    alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)

    pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
    vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s

    r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
    v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
    print pos_42
    print r
    print r - 6378.137
    print v

    if True:
    plt.figure()
    plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
    plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
    plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
    plt.ylim(0, 90)
    plt.xlim(35, 50)

    plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
    plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
    plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
    plt.ylim(0, 360)
    plt.xlim(35, 50)

    plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
    plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
    plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
    plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
    plt.ylim(250, 500)
    plt.xlim(35, 50)

    plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
    plt.show()





    share|improve this answer











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      3 Answers
      3






      active

      oldest

      votes








      3 Answers
      3






      active

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      active

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      29












      $begingroup$

      The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.



      enter image description here



      The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell






      share|improve this answer











      $endgroup$

















        29












        $begingroup$

        The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.



        enter image description here



        The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$















          29












          29








          29





          $begingroup$

          The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.



          enter image description here



          The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell






          share|improve this answer











          $endgroup$



          The apogee/ perigee of 2019-006A, the object likely shot down, was 260- 282 km, pretty low. Some of that debris could be quite a bit higher, but most of it will be lower, and all of it will have a new perigee/ apogee in that range, which will likely be shrinking quickly. It is expected that it will be similar to the debris cloud from USA-193 (Operation Burnt Frost), which had the following debris cloud Gabbard Plot (From Celestrak). Note that all debris reentered within 18 months after that operation, and most within a few days. I suspect it won't be quite as energetic, as there presumably isn't as much fuel quick could cause a significant energy event, but it's the best we have for now.



          enter image description here



          The best place to look would be from Space-Track's new catalog objects not associated with a launch. That data should be available soon. If you want to follow someone on Twitter to find out more, I recommend Jonathan McDowell







          share|improve this answer














          share|improve this answer



          share|improve this answer








          edited 2 days ago

























          answered 2 days ago









          PearsonArtPhotoPearsonArtPhoto

          83.7k16242459




          83.7k16242459





















              15












              $begingroup$

              At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.



              Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.






              share|improve this answer









              $endgroup$








              • 1




                $begingroup$
                as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
                $endgroup$
                – uhoh
                2 days ago






              • 4




                $begingroup$
                At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                2 days ago






              • 3




                $begingroup$
                Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
                $endgroup$
                – Harish
                2 days ago






              • 2




                $begingroup$
                Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                yesterday










              • $begingroup$
                As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                12 hours ago















              15












              $begingroup$

              At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.



              Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.






              share|improve this answer









              $endgroup$








              • 1




                $begingroup$
                as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
                $endgroup$
                – uhoh
                2 days ago






              • 4




                $begingroup$
                At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                2 days ago






              • 3




                $begingroup$
                Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
                $endgroup$
                – Harish
                2 days ago






              • 2




                $begingroup$
                Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                yesterday










              • $begingroup$
                As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                12 hours ago













              15












              15








              15





              $begingroup$

              At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.



              Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.






              share|improve this answer









              $endgroup$



              At this time, it is not yet known. There are some 250 objects observed, but it takes time to catalog them all. The object destroyed was most likely MICROSAT-R (TLE catalog number 43947, which is in a 294 x 265 km orbit at 96 degrees inclination.



              Due to the nature of the event, it's likely some of the objects have apogees well above ISS orbit. At this time, there is little to no public data available. When it comes available, you can expect to see it at space-track.org and celestrak.org in addition to the twitter account @TSKelso.







              share|improve this answer












              share|improve this answer



              share|improve this answer










              answered 2 days ago









              TristanTristan

              11.2k13857




              11.2k13857







              • 1




                $begingroup$
                as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
                $endgroup$
                – uhoh
                2 days ago






              • 4




                $begingroup$
                At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                2 days ago






              • 3




                $begingroup$
                Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
                $endgroup$
                – Harish
                2 days ago






              • 2




                $begingroup$
                Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                yesterday










              • $begingroup$
                As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                12 hours ago












              • 1




                $begingroup$
                as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
                $endgroup$
                – uhoh
                2 days ago






              • 4




                $begingroup$
                At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                2 days ago






              • 3




                $begingroup$
                Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
                $endgroup$
                – Harish
                2 days ago






              • 2




                $begingroup$
                Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                yesterday










              • $begingroup$
                As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
                $endgroup$
                – Tristan
                12 hours ago







              1




              1




              $begingroup$
              as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
              $endgroup$
              – uhoh
              2 days ago




              $begingroup$
              as if a box full of marbles wasn't enough for you guys to worry about already.
              $endgroup$
              – uhoh
              2 days ago




              4




              4




              $begingroup$
              At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              2 days ago




              $begingroup$
              At least this debris field is expected to be short-lived, unlike the Chinese ASAT test.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              2 days ago




              3




              3




              $begingroup$
              Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
              $endgroup$
              – Harish
              2 days ago




              $begingroup$
              Not sure if the debris cloud will be short-lived, since it is a low solar activity period.
              $endgroup$
              – Harish
              2 days ago




              2




              2




              $begingroup$
              Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              yesterday




              $begingroup$
              Even at nearly record low solar activity, orbit lifetimes with perigees below 300 km are many orders of magnitude shorter than those at 900-ish km.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              yesterday












              $begingroup$
              As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              12 hours ago




              $begingroup$
              As of 13:46 UTC on 29 March 2019, no TLEs related to the event have been released.
              $endgroup$
              – Tristan
              12 hours ago











              1












              $begingroup$

              I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.



              Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:



              • launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)

              • MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A

              • over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT

              I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.



              At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.



              MICROSAT-R 
              1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
              2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918


              enter image description here



              enter image description here Source



              # https://celestrak.com/satcat/
              TLE = """MICROSAT-R
              1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
              2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
              name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()

              # https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
              # https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
              # https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
              # launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
              # over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
              # Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
              # 20.757N, 87.084E

              import numpy as np
              import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
              from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite

              load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
              ts = load.timescale()
              de421 = load('de421.bsp')
              earth = de421['earth']

              Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
              longitude_degrees = +87.084,
              elevation_m = 10.0)
              minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
              times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)

              MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)

              astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
              alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)

              pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
              vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s

              r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
              v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
              print pos_42
              print r
              print r - 6378.137
              print v

              if True:
              plt.figure()
              plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
              plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
              plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
              plt.ylim(0, 90)
              plt.xlim(35, 50)

              plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
              plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
              plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
              plt.ylim(0, 360)
              plt.xlim(35, 50)

              plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
              plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
              plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
              plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
              plt.ylim(250, 500)
              plt.xlim(35, 50)

              plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
              plt.show()





              share|improve this answer











              $endgroup$

















                1












                $begingroup$

                I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.



                Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:



                • launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)

                • MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A

                • over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT

                I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.



                At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.



                MICROSAT-R 
                1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918


                enter image description here



                enter image description here Source



                # https://celestrak.com/satcat/
                TLE = """MICROSAT-R
                1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
                name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()

                # https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
                # https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
                # https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
                # launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
                # over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
                # Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
                # 20.757N, 87.084E

                import numpy as np
                import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
                from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite

                load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
                ts = load.timescale()
                de421 = load('de421.bsp')
                earth = de421['earth']

                Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
                longitude_degrees = +87.084,
                elevation_m = 10.0)
                minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
                times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)

                MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)

                astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
                alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)

                pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
                vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s

                r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
                v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
                print pos_42
                print r
                print r - 6378.137
                print v

                if True:
                plt.figure()
                plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
                plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
                plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
                plt.ylim(0, 90)
                plt.xlim(35, 50)

                plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
                plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
                plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
                plt.ylim(0, 360)
                plt.xlim(35, 50)

                plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
                plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
                plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
                plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
                plt.ylim(250, 500)
                plt.xlim(35, 50)

                plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
                plt.show()





                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$















                  1












                  1








                  1





                  $begingroup$

                  I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.



                  Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:



                  • launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)

                  • MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A

                  • over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT

                  I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.



                  At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.



                  MICROSAT-R 
                  1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                  2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918


                  enter image description here



                  enter image description here Source



                  # https://celestrak.com/satcat/
                  TLE = """MICROSAT-R
                  1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                  2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
                  name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()

                  # https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
                  # https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
                  # https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
                  # launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
                  # over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
                  # Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
                  # 20.757N, 87.084E

                  import numpy as np
                  import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
                  from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite

                  load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
                  ts = load.timescale()
                  de421 = load('de421.bsp')
                  earth = de421['earth']

                  Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
                  longitude_degrees = +87.084,
                  elevation_m = 10.0)
                  minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
                  times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)

                  MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)

                  astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
                  alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)

                  pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
                  vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s

                  r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
                  v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
                  print pos_42
                  print r
                  print r - 6378.137
                  print v

                  if True:
                  plt.figure()
                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
                  plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
                  plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(0, 90)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
                  plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
                  plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(0, 360)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
                  plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
                  plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(250, 500)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
                  plt.show()





                  share|improve this answer











                  $endgroup$



                  I'll just follow up a bit on the collision.



                  Per tweet and tweet and answer and answer and post:



                  • launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)

                  • MICROSAT-r 43947, 2019-006A

                  • over Abdul Kalam Island 5:42 UT

                  I've put a recent TLE into Skyfield and we can see that the satellite was moving north from the equator towards Abdul Kalam Island, India. According to the image in India's surprise ASAT test of 27 March 2019 the launch was somewhat south over the ocean to meet it.



                  At 05:42 the altitude was about 281 km and the velocity 7.73 km/s.



                  MICROSAT-R 
                  1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                  2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918


                  enter image description here



                  enter image description here Source



                  # https://celestrak.com/satcat/
                  TLE = """MICROSAT-R
                  1 43947U 19006A 19086.74388517 .07448791 20151+0 12875-1 0 9992
                  2 43947 96.7526 0.1883 0022976 252.9519 167.8627 16.09438738 9918"""
                  name, L1, L2 = TLE.splitlines()

                  # https://twitter.com/DutchSpace/status/1110833431523545088
                  # https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1110861054010105858
                  # https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/03/indias-surprise-asat-test-of-27-march.html
                  # launch 5:40 UT (27 March 2019)
                  # over 5:42 UT on 27 March 2019
                  # Abdul Kalam island on the Indian East Coast
                  # 20.757N, 87.084E

                  import numpy as np
                  import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
                  from skyfield.api import Topos, Loader, EarthSatellite

                  load = Loader('~/Documents/fishing/SkyData') # single instance for big files
                  ts = load.timescale()
                  de421 = load('de421.bsp')
                  earth = de421['earth']

                  Abdul_Kalam_Island = earth + Topos(latitude_degrees = +20.757,
                  longitude_degrees = +87.084,
                  elevation_m = 10.0)
                  minutes = np.arange(35, 50, 0.1)
                  times = ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, minutes)

                  MICROSAT_r = earth + EarthSatellite(L1, L2)

                  astrometric = Abdul_Kalam_Island.at(times).observe(MICROSAT_r)
                  alt, az, d = astrometric.apparent().altaz(pressure_mbar=0)

                  pos_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).position.km
                  vel_42 = earth.at(ts.utc(2019, 3, 27, 5, 42)).observe(MICROSAT_r).velocity.km_per_s

                  r = np.sqrt((pos_42**2).sum())
                  v = np.sqrt((vel_42**2).sum())
                  print pos_42
                  print r
                  print r - 6378.137
                  print v

                  if True:
                  plt.figure()
                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 1)
                  plt.plot(minutes, alt.degrees)
                  plt.ylabel('elevation (deg)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(0, 90)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 2)
                  plt.plot(minutes, az.degrees)
                  plt.ylabel('azimuth (deg)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(0, 360)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.subplot(3, 1, 3)
                  plt.plot(minutes, d.km)
                  plt.ylabel('range (km)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.xlabel('time after 05:00 (minutes)', fontsize=16)
                  plt.ylim(250, 500)
                  plt.xlim(35, 50)

                  plt.suptitle('MICROSAT-r vs Abdul Kalam Island, 27-03-2019 UTC', fontsize=16)
                  plt.show()






                  share|improve this answer














                  share|improve this answer



                  share|improve this answer








                  edited 22 hours ago

























                  answered 22 hours ago









                  uhohuhoh

                  39.9k18149502




                  39.9k18149502



























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