Proof of Cramér-Lundberg inequalityChecking proof that a given process is a martingaleExercise on martingale and sub/supermartingaleExponential Integrals of Brownian Motion, Stopping Times, Expectation$L^2$-bound for the stochastic integralIf $M$ is a local martingale and $τ:=infleft≥εright$, then $text P[[M]_∞≥δ]≤text P[τ<∞]+text P[[M]_τ≥δ]$Normal random variable and martingaleDurrett: Showing $E(log Y)$ is negative when $Y$ is nonnegative with $E(Y) = 1$ and $P(Y = 1) < 1$Strictly Convex function (Help with Durrett's exercise)Compound Poisson models with completely monotone claim sizesConvergence using Laplace transform

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Proof of Cramér-Lundberg inequality


Checking proof that a given process is a martingaleExercise on martingale and sub/supermartingaleExponential Integrals of Brownian Motion, Stopping Times, Expectation$L^2$-bound for the stochastic integralIf $M$ is a local martingale and $τ:=infleftM_t$, then $text P[[M]_∞≥δ]≤text P[τ<∞]+text P[[M]_τ≥δ]$Normal random variable and martingaleDurrett: Showing $E(log Y)$ is negative when $Y$ is nonnegative with $E(Y) = 1$ and $P(Y = 1) < 1$Strictly Convex function (Help with Durrett's exercise)Compound Poisson models with completely monotone claim sizesConvergence using Laplace transform













0












$begingroup$


I'm trying to prove the Cramér-Lundberg inequality, which deals with the probability of ruin for an insurance company given a certain initial capital. Specifically, if $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are the differences between the premiums and payments of an insurance company at time $n$, and $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$ is the total gain of the insurance company at time $n$, and $k_0$ is the initial capital, then the probability of eventual ruin $p(k_0)$ satisfies the Cramér-Lundberg inequality:
$$
p(k_0) := mathbb Pleft[ infleft X_n + k_0 : n in mathbb N_0 right < 0 right] leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)
$$

where $theta^* < 0$ satisfies $logleft( mathbb Eleft[ exp(theta^* Y_1 )right]right) = 0$.



My reference text proposes proving this in the following steps. Suppose $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are i.i.d. integrable random variables that are not almost surely constant. Let $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$, and suppose there is $delta > 0$ so that $mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right] < infty$ for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$. Define $psi : (-delta, delta) to mathbb R$ by $$psi(theta) := log left(mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right]right)$$
and define the process $Z^theta = left(Z^theta_nright)_n geq 1$ by $Z_n^theta := expleft(theta X_n - npsi(theta)right)$. We are suggested to show the following:




  1. $Z^theta$ is a martingale for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$.


  2. $psi$ is strictly convex.


  3. $mathbb Eleft[sqrtZ_n^thetaright] xrightarrown to infty 0$ for $theta neq 0$.


  4. $Z_n^theta xrightarrown to infty 0$ almost surely.

  5. If $psi(theta) = 0$ has a nonzero solution $theta^*$, then $theta^* < 0$.

  6. Prove that if such a $theta^*$ exists, then $p(k_0) leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)$.

I've been able to show 1, 4 (from 3), and 5 (from 2). I'm close for 2 but having some trouble: we need to show $psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) < lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi)$ whenever $theta neq phi$ and $lambda in (0,1)$. Clearly we have $$psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) = logmathbb Eleft[ expleft(lambdatheta Y_1 + (1-lambda)phi Y_1 right)right]$$ Meanwhile by Jensen's inequality and concavity of $x mapsto x^lambda$ for $0 < lambda < 1$,
beginalign*
lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi) &= log left( mathbb Eleft[exp (theta Y_1) right]^lambdaright) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[ exp(phi Y_1)right]^1-lambdaright) \
&geq logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]right) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right) \
&= logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right).
endalign*

If I could show $mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right] geq mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]$,that would solve this problem, but this is very far from obvious to me (especially since the integrands aren't independent).



Then 3 and 6 I'm really stuck on. Any help on any of these three would be greatly appreciated. Note I would prefer not to use martingale convergence theorems because these results have yet to appear in my textbook; I can only work with square integrable martingales and stopping times.










share|cite|improve this question









$endgroup$
















    0












    $begingroup$


    I'm trying to prove the Cramér-Lundberg inequality, which deals with the probability of ruin for an insurance company given a certain initial capital. Specifically, if $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are the differences between the premiums and payments of an insurance company at time $n$, and $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$ is the total gain of the insurance company at time $n$, and $k_0$ is the initial capital, then the probability of eventual ruin $p(k_0)$ satisfies the Cramér-Lundberg inequality:
    $$
    p(k_0) := mathbb Pleft[ infleft X_n + k_0 : n in mathbb N_0 right < 0 right] leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)
    $$

    where $theta^* < 0$ satisfies $logleft( mathbb Eleft[ exp(theta^* Y_1 )right]right) = 0$.



    My reference text proposes proving this in the following steps. Suppose $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are i.i.d. integrable random variables that are not almost surely constant. Let $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$, and suppose there is $delta > 0$ so that $mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right] < infty$ for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$. Define $psi : (-delta, delta) to mathbb R$ by $$psi(theta) := log left(mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right]right)$$
    and define the process $Z^theta = left(Z^theta_nright)_n geq 1$ by $Z_n^theta := expleft(theta X_n - npsi(theta)right)$. We are suggested to show the following:




    1. $Z^theta$ is a martingale for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$.


    2. $psi$ is strictly convex.


    3. $mathbb Eleft[sqrtZ_n^thetaright] xrightarrown to infty 0$ for $theta neq 0$.


    4. $Z_n^theta xrightarrown to infty 0$ almost surely.

    5. If $psi(theta) = 0$ has a nonzero solution $theta^*$, then $theta^* < 0$.

    6. Prove that if such a $theta^*$ exists, then $p(k_0) leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)$.

    I've been able to show 1, 4 (from 3), and 5 (from 2). I'm close for 2 but having some trouble: we need to show $psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) < lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi)$ whenever $theta neq phi$ and $lambda in (0,1)$. Clearly we have $$psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) = logmathbb Eleft[ expleft(lambdatheta Y_1 + (1-lambda)phi Y_1 right)right]$$ Meanwhile by Jensen's inequality and concavity of $x mapsto x^lambda$ for $0 < lambda < 1$,
    beginalign*
    lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi) &= log left( mathbb Eleft[exp (theta Y_1) right]^lambdaright) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[ exp(phi Y_1)right]^1-lambdaright) \
    &geq logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]right) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right) \
    &= logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right).
    endalign*

    If I could show $mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right] geq mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]$,that would solve this problem, but this is very far from obvious to me (especially since the integrands aren't independent).



    Then 3 and 6 I'm really stuck on. Any help on any of these three would be greatly appreciated. Note I would prefer not to use martingale convergence theorems because these results have yet to appear in my textbook; I can only work with square integrable martingales and stopping times.










    share|cite|improve this question









    $endgroup$














      0












      0








      0


      1



      $begingroup$


      I'm trying to prove the Cramér-Lundberg inequality, which deals with the probability of ruin for an insurance company given a certain initial capital. Specifically, if $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are the differences between the premiums and payments of an insurance company at time $n$, and $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$ is the total gain of the insurance company at time $n$, and $k_0$ is the initial capital, then the probability of eventual ruin $p(k_0)$ satisfies the Cramér-Lundberg inequality:
      $$
      p(k_0) := mathbb Pleft[ infleft X_n + k_0 : n in mathbb N_0 right < 0 right] leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)
      $$

      where $theta^* < 0$ satisfies $logleft( mathbb Eleft[ exp(theta^* Y_1 )right]right) = 0$.



      My reference text proposes proving this in the following steps. Suppose $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are i.i.d. integrable random variables that are not almost surely constant. Let $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$, and suppose there is $delta > 0$ so that $mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right] < infty$ for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$. Define $psi : (-delta, delta) to mathbb R$ by $$psi(theta) := log left(mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right]right)$$
      and define the process $Z^theta = left(Z^theta_nright)_n geq 1$ by $Z_n^theta := expleft(theta X_n - npsi(theta)right)$. We are suggested to show the following:




      1. $Z^theta$ is a martingale for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$.


      2. $psi$ is strictly convex.


      3. $mathbb Eleft[sqrtZ_n^thetaright] xrightarrown to infty 0$ for $theta neq 0$.


      4. $Z_n^theta xrightarrown to infty 0$ almost surely.

      5. If $psi(theta) = 0$ has a nonzero solution $theta^*$, then $theta^* < 0$.

      6. Prove that if such a $theta^*$ exists, then $p(k_0) leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)$.

      I've been able to show 1, 4 (from 3), and 5 (from 2). I'm close for 2 but having some trouble: we need to show $psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) < lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi)$ whenever $theta neq phi$ and $lambda in (0,1)$. Clearly we have $$psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) = logmathbb Eleft[ expleft(lambdatheta Y_1 + (1-lambda)phi Y_1 right)right]$$ Meanwhile by Jensen's inequality and concavity of $x mapsto x^lambda$ for $0 < lambda < 1$,
      beginalign*
      lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi) &= log left( mathbb Eleft[exp (theta Y_1) right]^lambdaright) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[ exp(phi Y_1)right]^1-lambdaright) \
      &geq logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]right) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right) \
      &= logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right).
      endalign*

      If I could show $mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right] geq mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]$,that would solve this problem, but this is very far from obvious to me (especially since the integrands aren't independent).



      Then 3 and 6 I'm really stuck on. Any help on any of these three would be greatly appreciated. Note I would prefer not to use martingale convergence theorems because these results have yet to appear in my textbook; I can only work with square integrable martingales and stopping times.










      share|cite|improve this question









      $endgroup$




      I'm trying to prove the Cramér-Lundberg inequality, which deals with the probability of ruin for an insurance company given a certain initial capital. Specifically, if $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are the differences between the premiums and payments of an insurance company at time $n$, and $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$ is the total gain of the insurance company at time $n$, and $k_0$ is the initial capital, then the probability of eventual ruin $p(k_0)$ satisfies the Cramér-Lundberg inequality:
      $$
      p(k_0) := mathbb Pleft[ infleft X_n + k_0 : n in mathbb N_0 right < 0 right] leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)
      $$

      where $theta^* < 0$ satisfies $logleft( mathbb Eleft[ exp(theta^* Y_1 )right]right) = 0$.



      My reference text proposes proving this in the following steps. Suppose $Y_1, Y_2, ldots$ are i.i.d. integrable random variables that are not almost surely constant. Let $X_n = Y_1 + cdots + Y_n$, and suppose there is $delta > 0$ so that $mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right] < infty$ for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$. Define $psi : (-delta, delta) to mathbb R$ by $$psi(theta) := log left(mathbb Eleft[expleft(theta Y_1 right)right]right)$$
      and define the process $Z^theta = left(Z^theta_nright)_n geq 1$ by $Z_n^theta := expleft(theta X_n - npsi(theta)right)$. We are suggested to show the following:




      1. $Z^theta$ is a martingale for all $theta in (-delta, delta)$.


      2. $psi$ is strictly convex.


      3. $mathbb Eleft[sqrtZ_n^thetaright] xrightarrown to infty 0$ for $theta neq 0$.


      4. $Z_n^theta xrightarrown to infty 0$ almost surely.

      5. If $psi(theta) = 0$ has a nonzero solution $theta^*$, then $theta^* < 0$.

      6. Prove that if such a $theta^*$ exists, then $p(k_0) leq expleft(theta^* k_0right)$.

      I've been able to show 1, 4 (from 3), and 5 (from 2). I'm close for 2 but having some trouble: we need to show $psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) < lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi)$ whenever $theta neq phi$ and $lambda in (0,1)$. Clearly we have $$psi(lambdatheta + (1-lambda)phi) = logmathbb Eleft[ expleft(lambdatheta Y_1 + (1-lambda)phi Y_1 right)right]$$ Meanwhile by Jensen's inequality and concavity of $x mapsto x^lambda$ for $0 < lambda < 1$,
      beginalign*
      lambda psi(theta) + (1-lambda)psi(phi) &= log left( mathbb Eleft[exp (theta Y_1) right]^lambdaright) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[ exp(phi Y_1)right]^1-lambdaright) \
      &geq logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]right) + logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right) \
      &= logleft(mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]right).
      endalign*

      If I could show $mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)right]mathbb Eleft[expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right] geq mathbb Eleft[expleft(lambda theta Y_1right)expleft((1-lambda)phi Y_1right)right]$,that would solve this problem, but this is very far from obvious to me (especially since the integrands aren't independent).



      Then 3 and 6 I'm really stuck on. Any help on any of these three would be greatly appreciated. Note I would prefer not to use martingale convergence theorems because these results have yet to appear in my textbook; I can only work with square integrable martingales and stopping times.







      real-analysis probability-theory stochastic-processes martingales stopping-times






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      asked Mar 29 at 3:45









      D FordD Ford

      675313




      675313




















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          Here is an idea for the convergence results 3. and 4.



          I will start with 4. : Write $Z_n^theta=e^nbig(thetafracX_nn-psi(theta)big)$ and let $A^theta_n=thetafracX_nn-psi(theta);,ninmathbbN$. By the strong law of large numbers, it follows that for all $thetain(-delta,delta)$ $$A^theta_nundersetntoinftylongrightarrow a(theta):=mathbbE[theta ;Y_1]-psi(theta);;texta.s.$$ Now, observe that for all $thetaneq0$
          $$a(theta)= mathbbE[theta;Y_1]-log mathbbE[exptheta;Y_1]< 0$$ by strict convexity of the exponential (or Jensen). Thus, on an event $tildeOmega$ of probability $1$, there exists an $n_0inmathbbN$ and $M<0$, such that for all $ngeq n_0$,
          $$A^theta_nleq M;;(on;tildeOmega);$$
          Hence for $thetaneq 0$ $$ |Z^theta_n|leq e^nMlongrightarrow 0;;a.s.$$ (For $theta=1$, $Z_n^1=1$ for all $n$)



          Finally, for 3. it suffices to use the continuity of the square root to conclude that $sqrtZ_n^theta$ converges to $0$ almost surely (provided that $thetaneq 0$) and the Dominated convergence theorem to pass the limit inside the expectation.






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            $begingroup$

            Here is an idea for the convergence results 3. and 4.



            I will start with 4. : Write $Z_n^theta=e^nbig(thetafracX_nn-psi(theta)big)$ and let $A^theta_n=thetafracX_nn-psi(theta);,ninmathbbN$. By the strong law of large numbers, it follows that for all $thetain(-delta,delta)$ $$A^theta_nundersetntoinftylongrightarrow a(theta):=mathbbE[theta ;Y_1]-psi(theta);;texta.s.$$ Now, observe that for all $thetaneq0$
            $$a(theta)= mathbbE[theta;Y_1]-log mathbbE[exptheta;Y_1]< 0$$ by strict convexity of the exponential (or Jensen). Thus, on an event $tildeOmega$ of probability $1$, there exists an $n_0inmathbbN$ and $M<0$, such that for all $ngeq n_0$,
            $$A^theta_nleq M;;(on;tildeOmega);$$
            Hence for $thetaneq 0$ $$ |Z^theta_n|leq e^nMlongrightarrow 0;;a.s.$$ (For $theta=1$, $Z_n^1=1$ for all $n$)



            Finally, for 3. it suffices to use the continuity of the square root to conclude that $sqrtZ_n^theta$ converges to $0$ almost surely (provided that $thetaneq 0$) and the Dominated convergence theorem to pass the limit inside the expectation.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$

















              0












              $begingroup$

              Here is an idea for the convergence results 3. and 4.



              I will start with 4. : Write $Z_n^theta=e^nbig(thetafracX_nn-psi(theta)big)$ and let $A^theta_n=thetafracX_nn-psi(theta);,ninmathbbN$. By the strong law of large numbers, it follows that for all $thetain(-delta,delta)$ $$A^theta_nundersetntoinftylongrightarrow a(theta):=mathbbE[theta ;Y_1]-psi(theta);;texta.s.$$ Now, observe that for all $thetaneq0$
              $$a(theta)= mathbbE[theta;Y_1]-log mathbbE[exptheta;Y_1]< 0$$ by strict convexity of the exponential (or Jensen). Thus, on an event $tildeOmega$ of probability $1$, there exists an $n_0inmathbbN$ and $M<0$, such that for all $ngeq n_0$,
              $$A^theta_nleq M;;(on;tildeOmega);$$
              Hence for $thetaneq 0$ $$ |Z^theta_n|leq e^nMlongrightarrow 0;;a.s.$$ (For $theta=1$, $Z_n^1=1$ for all $n$)



              Finally, for 3. it suffices to use the continuity of the square root to conclude that $sqrtZ_n^theta$ converges to $0$ almost surely (provided that $thetaneq 0$) and the Dominated convergence theorem to pass the limit inside the expectation.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$















                0












                0








                0





                $begingroup$

                Here is an idea for the convergence results 3. and 4.



                I will start with 4. : Write $Z_n^theta=e^nbig(thetafracX_nn-psi(theta)big)$ and let $A^theta_n=thetafracX_nn-psi(theta);,ninmathbbN$. By the strong law of large numbers, it follows that for all $thetain(-delta,delta)$ $$A^theta_nundersetntoinftylongrightarrow a(theta):=mathbbE[theta ;Y_1]-psi(theta);;texta.s.$$ Now, observe that for all $thetaneq0$
                $$a(theta)= mathbbE[theta;Y_1]-log mathbbE[exptheta;Y_1]< 0$$ by strict convexity of the exponential (or Jensen). Thus, on an event $tildeOmega$ of probability $1$, there exists an $n_0inmathbbN$ and $M<0$, such that for all $ngeq n_0$,
                $$A^theta_nleq M;;(on;tildeOmega);$$
                Hence for $thetaneq 0$ $$ |Z^theta_n|leq e^nMlongrightarrow 0;;a.s.$$ (For $theta=1$, $Z_n^1=1$ for all $n$)



                Finally, for 3. it suffices to use the continuity of the square root to conclude that $sqrtZ_n^theta$ converges to $0$ almost surely (provided that $thetaneq 0$) and the Dominated convergence theorem to pass the limit inside the expectation.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                Here is an idea for the convergence results 3. and 4.



                I will start with 4. : Write $Z_n^theta=e^nbig(thetafracX_nn-psi(theta)big)$ and let $A^theta_n=thetafracX_nn-psi(theta);,ninmathbbN$. By the strong law of large numbers, it follows that for all $thetain(-delta,delta)$ $$A^theta_nundersetntoinftylongrightarrow a(theta):=mathbbE[theta ;Y_1]-psi(theta);;texta.s.$$ Now, observe that for all $thetaneq0$
                $$a(theta)= mathbbE[theta;Y_1]-log mathbbE[exptheta;Y_1]< 0$$ by strict convexity of the exponential (or Jensen). Thus, on an event $tildeOmega$ of probability $1$, there exists an $n_0inmathbbN$ and $M<0$, such that for all $ngeq n_0$,
                $$A^theta_nleq M;;(on;tildeOmega);$$
                Hence for $thetaneq 0$ $$ |Z^theta_n|leq e^nMlongrightarrow 0;;a.s.$$ (For $theta=1$, $Z_n^1=1$ for all $n$)



                Finally, for 3. it suffices to use the continuity of the square root to conclude that $sqrtZ_n^theta$ converges to $0$ almost surely (provided that $thetaneq 0$) and the Dominated convergence theorem to pass the limit inside the expectation.







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered Mar 29 at 8:29









                gigastergigaster

                1413




                1413



























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